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Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Giovanna
12S.GIOVANNA 98S.INVEST There is an area of disturb weather that has a high chance of formation in a tropical cyclone here comes Giovanna I think that would be the name assign am I correct?Allanjeffs 02:24, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Yup.--Cy10-- 03:29, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 09 Well after weeks of inactivity, we have a depression. Expected to strengthen into an ITC before making landfall as an ITC. —''12R.KIEWII'' 08:41, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna here she comes.Allanjeffs 12:48, February 9, 2012 (UTC) :I don't want to expect much out of this storm(Giovanna), but this thing just gives me bad feelings...Unlike Funso, this storm actually has a descent chance of making landfall as an ITC or VITC on MFR's scale. Madagascar has gotten better at preparations for tropical cyclones in rescent years, especially after Bingiza claimed only 10-15 lives last year. That was a great reduction from the 93 that perished after Ivan in 2008, which was a reduction from Gafilo's over 200 deaths in 2004, which was a reduction itself from the more than 1,000 that perished from the Eline-Gloria-Hudah trio in 2000. Hopefully Giovanna won't be very deadly for them, but it certainly bears watching. Ryan1000 14:53, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 12S It's here.--Cy10-- 21:04, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna Remember, the JTWC are not reliable on SHEM systems. —''12R.KIEWII'' 21:18, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Looks okay for now, but it's still going to strengthen slowly but surely as it heads WSW. Madagascar may get a surprise, but hopefully not a bad one. Ryan1000 21:24, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna would probably strength to a cat 3 or 4 on our scale Madagascar should really pay attention to this one.Allanjeffs 21:51, February 9, 2012 (UTC) I think this storm will hit C1 or C2 intensity. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 23:26, February 9, 2012 (UTC) If I had to guess on this one's peak intensity, I would place this one's peak at 115-120 mph, possibly less, but still, an intense cyclone like that could spell big trouble for the folks in northeastern Madagascar. The death toll won't be extremely high because the're quite prepared for TC's, but still, they better keep their eyes out for this storm. Ryan1000 02:45, February 10, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna Now a Severe tropical storm.--Cy10-- 13:14, February 10, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna Now strongest storm of the season! —''12R.KIEWII'' 18:50, February 10, 2012 (UTC) :Explosive intensification much? In fact, it really looks like Hurricane Wilma right now (vis). This is amazing folks! Fairly rare! (although Funso pulled a similar act 2 weeks ago). And damn, Giovanna is beautiful! It still has a few days out until land, so it should have peaked by then and weakened a bit... Yqt1001 20:27, February 10, 2012 (UTC) ::That being said, there's actually a good chance this could hit Madagascar as a cat. 4 or 5, like Gafilo did in 2004, which was the strongest SWIO storm on record at 895 mbars. I don't think Giovanna will quite reach Gafilo's strength, but it could have terribly similar impacts. This thing is not only taking off like there's no tomorrow, but it's a very large storm too. It's hundreds of miles across and it has the potential to engulf the entire island in gale-force winds. This is starting to look really scary for the folks over there. The people in eastern Madagascar need to leave NOW. Ryan1000 20:50, February 10, 2012 (UTC) ::I knew she would strength in a formidable storm and I have only went half a day without internet and see how Giovanna took that time to strength if I was in Madagascar I weould prepare for this storm.btw in the first betting pools I put Giovanna as the strongest of the season I would have win. Allanjeffs 03:56, February 11, 2012 (UTC) :::Everyone would. Giovanna is going through a EWRC. --Cy10-- 04:08, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Yep - Giovanna has began to weaken and is now down to 945 hPa. —''12R.KIEWII'' 09:13, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Giovanna Down...down...down...down. —''12R.KIEWII'' 14:03, February 11, 2012 (UTC) That was quite an amazing intensification! Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 14:06, February 11, 2012 (UTC) As fast as it strengthened, it powered down even quicker. That being said, it won't be as bad as I thought. Giovanna is still a very dangerous storm because it's so big, but now that it's not as strong, damage will be much less severe than it otherwise could have. Ryan1000 14:27, February 11, 2012 (UTC) ::However, remember that Giovanna should strengthen back into an ITC again shortly. Giovanna could also make landfall on Mozambique as a MTS or STS. —''12R.KIEWII'' 14:47, February 11, 2012 (UTC) ::The water near Mozambique are hot so she could strength again to a Very Intense tropical cyclone.Allanjeffs 15:12, February 11, 2012 (UTC) :::That may be a bad thing for them, but it's tough for a storm to survive the high, rough mountains of Madagascar or other places like Hispaniola. Eline of 2000 was an unusual exeption. It made landfall in Madagascar as only a category 1 storm, and barely emerged off of the west coast of the island as a TD, but when it came into the Mozambique channel, it exploded into a 135 mph C4 and decimated Mozambique, killing over 1,000 people. Storms like that are extremely rare in the SWIO and Eline was the worst storm to hit Mozambique in over 50 years. By contrast, Ivan of 2008 hit Madagascar as a 135 mph C4 and it died after it emerged off of the island, while Eline survived. The size of the storm is one of the key factors to surviving a mountainous land. If a storm with a tiny circulation goes over a mountainous terrain, it will die out very rapidly. If it has a large circulation, it has a better chance of survival. Maybe Eline was big enough to survive Madagascar when it did hit them, and the same could apply to Giovanna, since it's also a massive cyclone. But preperations have changed significantly since Eline, and the death toll from tropical cyclones in the SWIO has dropped in rescent years. Even if Giovanna is strong when it makes landfall, the death toll will be reduced due to preparations, and that's all that really matters. The only way this storm will be deadly is if the folks in Madagascar and Mozambique don't get out of harm's way. The Philipines learned that lesson after Washi last December. Ryan1000 16:31, February 11, 2012 (UTC) :::In the forecast Giovanna is forecast to make landfall in southern Mozambique which is rare.Allanjeffs 23:00, February 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::And that make it more interesting two storms that make landfall in southern Mozambique.Allanjeffs 02:55, February 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::Not really. Dando made landfall in Southern Mozambique earlier this year. --Cy10-- 00:05, February 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::Here's a synopsis of Giovanna's predicted future: She reintensifies into a VITC, weakens to a TC, hits Madagascar at that intensity, degenerates into a weak low-pressure area, then restrengthens to a STS. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 00:50, February 12, 2012 (UTC) No longer forecast to regain ITC status, and no longer forecast to become a STS in the Mozambique Channel. —''12R.KIEWII'' 10:33, February 12, 2012 (UTC) It still stands at category 3 strength though, but now it's only forecast to make landfall as a 2 and reemerge off of Madagascar as a TS. It has a chance to regenerate in the Mozambique Channel, but I won't count on that just yet. And Cy10, Dando did hit Southern Mozambique earlier this year, but as Andrew said, the last time a storm hit the Maputo area before Dando was in 1984, so it's not really common either way. Favio of 2007 was also pretty close. Ryan1000 14:29, February 12, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna is now strengthening very quickly. IR IR_BW Pretty and all, but not the best time for it to explode again. Yqt1001 18:11, February 12, 2012 (UTC) She is really beautiful but if she explode Madagascar and even Mozambique will have problems with this beauty.Allanjeffs 19:29, February 12, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna is probable a cat 4 right now ans it looks like she is strengthening as we speak.Allanjeffs 23:41, February 12, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (2nd time) Up....up....up....up...--Cy10-- 02:09, February 13, 2012 (UTC) She just need 15mph more to reach cat 5 if she was in the ocean I will be cheerleading to happen but because is going to strike land I am praying to weaken before it make landfall a note in here is that Giovanna would make landfall at the same day as Bingiza.Allanjeffs 02:31, February 13, 2012 (UTC) :Giovanna is a very agressive storm right now, but per Jeffmaster's latest blog post, he anticipates Giovanna to undergo an ERC as it makes landfall tonight, but he still expects it to make landfall as a category 3 with winds of up to 125 mph. However, if Giovanna undergoes an ERC, the hurricane-force wind field will be expanded, so it has a better chance of surviving Madagascar. The wind shear near Mozambique is lighter than it was yesterday too, so Giovanna could make landfall in Mozambique as a stronger storm than it is currently indicated. Hopefully officials in Madagascar have gotten everyone out of harm's way, otherwise this storm will be a very deadly storm. Ryan1000 15:01, February 13, 2012 (UTC) :Giovanna have make landfall with an estimate peak of 140mph I think.Allanjeffs 22:56, February 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Landfall with 145mph winds, not 140mph. Yqt1001 23:20, February 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Well, Giovanna is now the strongest storm of the 2011-12 SWIO season (I think). Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 00:04, February 14, 2012 (UTC) :::Yes, in pressure and winds, Giovanna is now the strongest storm of 2012 thus far, and for the SWIO. She also hit Madagascar at peak strength, so there's a good chance it could proceed into Mozambique as at least a cat. 1. If Eline was able to survive Madagascar, Giovanna probrably will too. Hopefully the atmospheric conditions will not be in Giovanna's favor when it does leave Madagascar, otherwise this storm could be more destructive than Eline when it proceeds into Mozambique. Ryan1000 02:24, February 14, 2012 (UTC) ::::It's starting to power down now, to 110 mph, but it's a large, expansive storm and it's causing massive flooding in Madagascar as we speak. It is currently only forecast to stay a TS in the Mozambique channel, but that's not certain as of yet. Ryan1000 10:34, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Overland Depression Giovanna Weakening now... expected to strengthen back into a TC in MC —''12R.KIEWII'' 19:42, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Giovanna Continuing to strengthen as it moves into warmer seas. —''12R.KIEWII'' 11:20, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Expected to become a hurricane over the next few days, but it could turn south before making landfall in Mozambique. Ryan1000 11:40, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (2nd time) It's back up to a TS, but no longer forecast to be a hurricane. Mozambique still better watch out for this one though. Ryan1000 23:46, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Yup. I guess the track leads it to making landfall in Southern Madagascar now, because i'm guessing that it was the weaker track, and Giovanna decided not to become a hurricane aka a tropical cyclone in their area (Meteo France) once again. 173.169.56.34 23:58, February 17, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna (2nd time) And back up again.--Cy10-- 00:53, February 18, 2012 (UTC) :Not expected to make a landfall now.--Cy10-- 00:58, February 18, 2012 (UTC) ::Giovanna wasn't as bad as I thought it would be, and since the majority of the convection is south of the circulation, even if it does make landfall, it will only do minor damage. Funso killed more people than Giovanna, but that was only because it impacted a country that was less prepared for tropical cyclones. 18 deaths isn't that many considering how devastating it was, possibly the worst storm to hit that area of Madagascar since Geralda in January 1994. Ryan1000 02:38, February 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (2nd time) It went up...--Cy10-- 17:56, February 18, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna (3rd time) And back down....--Cy10-- 17:56, February 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (3rd time) Yep.. back uup. —''12R.KIEWII'' 11:37, February 19, 2012 (UTC) Really, Giovanna? You've alredy wrought massive carnage across Madagascar and now you're coming back for more? You just don't know when to quit, do you? Ryan1000 12:38, February 19, 2012 (UTC) She really doesn`t want to give up.Allanjeffs 13:07, February 19, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna (4th time) It shouldn't reach TC strength again.--Cy10-- 19:13, February 19, 2012 (UTC) Hopefully, this is it. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 21:43, February 19, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (3rd time) Down again... this is it. —''12R.KIEWII'' 12:31, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Filling Up Giovanna Starting to fill up now. —''12R.KIEWII'' 12:31, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Low pressure area Giovanna Does anyone want to say bye to Giovanna?--Cy10-- 17:30, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Bye Giovanna had fun tracking you while you were alive.Allanjeffs 21:49, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Giovanna Down and out now. Ryan1000 23:00, February 20, 2012 (UTC)